Spatio-Temporal Multi-Criteria Optimization Framework for Strategic Siting of Large-Scale Solar–Hydrogen Hybrid Plants: A Case Study of India (Rajasthan–Gujarat Corridor)

Abstract

The need for effective green hydrogen infrastructure planning has increased because renewable energy resources are abundant in areas that are transitioning to sustainable energy systems. This study presents a spatial-temporal optimization framework which employs multi-criteria evaluation to determine optimal locations for large-scale solar powered hydrogen production facilities through the combination of Analytical Hierarchy Process and Starfish Optimization Algorithm and Monte Carlo Simulation. The framework evaluates site suitability based on a comprehensive set of criteria, including solar irradiance, temperature, water availability, infrastructure accessibility, land suitability, and demand distribution. The model is applied to selected high-potential regions in Rajasthan and Gujarat, where normalized multi-criteria datasets are processed within a GIS-based environment. The AHP-derived weights indicate that solar irradiance (0.22), water availability (0.15), and grid accessibility (0.14) are the most influential factors. Initial suitability analysis identifies Kutch and Ahmedabad as leading candidates with scores of 0.69 and 0.66, respectively. The application of SFOA further improves these scores to 0.74 and 0.70, demonstrating enhanced optimization performance with convergence exceeding 0.94. The study uses Monte Carlo simulation with 1000 iterations to test robustness by introducing random fluctuations to essential parameters which include solar power and water supply and demand. Kutch achieved the highest suitability score which reached 0.73 with Achieved stability which showed low standard deviation of 0.04 while Ahmedabad scored 0.69. Jaisalmer shows more variability because of its existing infrastructure and environmental limitations. The probability analysis shows that Kutch has an 82% chance of being the best site. The study results show that Rajasthan operates as a renewable energy production area while Gujarat acts as a processing and export center for hydrogen. The proposed framework demonstrates strong capability as a decision-support tool for hydrogen infrastructure planning by combining deterministic optimization with stochastic validation. The approach provides policymakers with practical solutions while building an Indian green hydrogen economy which can function in multiple regions.