Forecasting The Electricity Consumption by Domestic and Industrial Sector in Nepal

Abstract

Forecasting the electricity consumption is crucial for efficient electricity supply management,strategic  energy  planning  as  well  as  policy  formulation.  This  study  had  aimed  to  forecast  the  electricity consumption in Nepal by household and industrial sector by using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) method. The study incorporates the historical data from 1975 to 2023 A.D. sourced from Nepal  Electricity  Authority  (NEA).  and  forecast  the  consumption  in  both  sectors  from  2024  to  2033.  The study  predicts  that  the  sector  will  continue  to  experience  significant  growth  in  consumption.  within  the study period the average annual growth rate of consumption in the domestic sector will be 8-9 % while in the industrial sector it will be 10-11%. During the initial years the household sector consumption appears to be higher, but the industrial sector is likely to surpass the domestic sector by 2027.